NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Mari Tanaka

Hitotsubashi University
Graduate School of Economics
2-1 Naka, Kunitachi, Tokyo, Japan

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Institutional Affiliation: Hitotsubashi University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

June 2018Firm Performance and Macro Forecast Accuracy
with Nicholas Bloom, Joel M. David, Maiko Koga: w24776
Ever since Keynes’ famous quote about animal spirits, there has been an interest in linking firms’ expectations and actions. However, empirical evidence has been limited due to a lack of firm-level panel data on expectations and outcomes. In this paper, we build such a dataset by combining a unique survey of Japanese firms’ GDP forecasts with company accounting data for 25 years for over 1,000 large Japanese firms. We find four main results. First, firms’ GDP forecasts are positively associated with their employment, investment, and output growth in the subsequent year. Second, both optimistic and pessimistic forecast errors lower profitability. Third, while over-optimistic forecasts lower measured productivity, over-pessimistic forecasts do not tend to have an effect on productivity. Over...

Published: Mari Tanaka & Nicholas Bloom & Joel M. David & Maiko Koga, 2019. "Firm Performance and Macro Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Monetary Economics, .

 
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